The last seven games mean nothing anymore for four teams looking to squeeze through to the semifinals. On Thursday, August 30, it all comes down to one match for Brazil, Canada, Puerto Rico, and Uruguay.
The United States and Argentina have already secured their spots in the semifinals and will play a rather meaningless game for first seed in the next round. The United States is expected to beat Argentina in the same manner that they’ve handled everybody else. Argentina, however, won’t mind one bit. As long as they can win their semifinal game they’ll secure a spot in the 2008 Beijing Olympics. The top two finishers in the FIBA Americas Tournament automatically qualify; positions 3, 4, and 5 will have another chance to qualify next year.
On Thursday, Brazil will be playing against Uruguay in a “must-win” game. If Brazil loses, they’ll likely open up the door for Canada to finish third. This would mean that they, after losing to the Americans next round (assumed), would have to try to qualify again next year.
The match doesn’t mean all that much for Uruguay, except that they’ll have the chance to play spoilers on this eventful day. Uruguay is pretty much out of the running based on points for versus points against. They would have to beat Brazil by an impossible amount in order to end up on the winning side of a possible tie-breaker.
If Brazil wins, they are guaranteed third position and a likely game against Argentina. However, if Uruguay is successful in ruining the day for Barbosa and company, then Canada and Puerto Rico both have a chance at third instead.
Canada needs to beat the favored Puerto Ricans in order to finish with 11 points, which would be one more than Brazil (if they lose). Puerto Rico, however, won’t be giving them an easy time. If they beat Canada, they are guaranteed a spot in the semifinals. If they beat Canada and Brazil loses in the earlier game, then they will likely secure third (assuming they win by enough to cover their current four point deficit to Brazil in the “points for/points against” category).
If this sounds confusing then it’s because it is. Here are the possible scenarios:
Brazil > Uruguay and Canada > Puerto Rico = Brazil 3rd, Canada 4th
Brazil > Uruguay and Puerto Rico > Canada = Brazil 3rd, Puerto Rico 4th
Uruguay > Brazil and Canada > Puerto Rico = Canada 3rd, Brazil 4th
Uruguay > Brazil and Puerto Rico > Canada = Puerto Rico 3rd, Brazil 4th (unless both games are within 2 points)
It’ll be really interesting to see how it all works out. I’m expecting Brazil to come out firing to lock up that third spot. If they don’t, however, it would add to the excitement between Canada and Puerto Rico. Either way, they will be great games with a lot of intensity. This is when it’s all on the line – this is when every play matters.
My Prediction: Brazil wins and Canada wins.
My Hope: Canada wins and Brazil wins.
What do you think is going to happen? Who are you cheering for?
